BirdAnalyst
Species · Colorado · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Pygmy-Owl Population Trend in Colorado

All statesGeneralists

Northern Pygmy-Owl in Colorado has held roughly steady: down 5% on the route-weighted index since 1996.

-5%Since 1996TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
18YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Pygmy-Owl Trends in ColoradoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Pygmy-Owl in Colorado. See the full index history below.

Northern Pygmy-Owl Population Forecast in Colorado

If the recent trend holds, Northern Pygmy-Owl in Colorado is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.03). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±63.8%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2026TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2026 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±63.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Pygmy-Owl in Colorado is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.03). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±63.8%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19902026
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20220.020.000.03
20230.020.000.03
20240.020.000.03
20250.020.000.03
20260.020.000.03

Northern Pygmy-Owl Survey Routes in Colorado

Routes recording Northern Pygmy-Owl in Colorado.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Guffey220172015
Angora220111998
Yellowjacket Pass120142014
Lost Lake120152015
Gold Hill120012001
Harmony119901990
Trail Ridge Road120072006
Cheesman Lk120062006
Buffalo Park120212021
Uncompahgre120102010
Flattops120151995
Thomasville120162016
Guanella Pas120182018
Comanche Pk120052005
Pinon119951995
Paonia120182018
Groundhog Rs120212021

Northern Pygmy-Owl Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniaidahomontananew-mexicooregonutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.