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Species · Colorado · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Pygmy-Owl Population Trend in Colorado

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Northern Pygmy-Owl in Colorado has held roughly steady: down 5% on the route-weighted index since 1996.

-5%Since 1996TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
19YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Pygmy-Owl Trends in ColoradoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Pygmy-Owl in Colorado. See the full index history below.

Northern Pygmy-Owl Population Forecast in Colorado

If the recent trend holds, Northern Pygmy-Owl in Colorado is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.02 (95% range 0.01–0.03). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.0395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Pygmy-Owl in Colorado is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.02 (95% range 0.01–0.03). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19902030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.020.010.03
20270.020.010.03
20280.020.010.03
20290.020.010.03
20300.020.010.03

Northern Pygmy-Owl Survey Routes in Colorado

Routes recording Northern Pygmy-Owl in Colorado.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Angora220111998
Yellowjacket Pass120142014
Lost Lake120152015
Gold Hill120012001
Harmony119901990
Heeney 2120252025
Trail Ridge Road120072006
Cheesman Lk120062006
Buffalo Park120212021
Uncompahgre120102010
Guffey120252015
Flattops120151995
Thomasville120162016
Guanella Pas120182018
Comanche Pk120052005
Pinon119951995
Paonia120182018
Groundhog Rs120212021

Northern Pygmy-Owl Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.