BirdAnalyst
Species · Washington · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Pygmy-Owl Population Trend in Washington

All statesGeneralists

Northern Pygmy-Owl in Washington has held roughly steady: down 4% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

-4%Since 1983TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
41Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
36YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Pygmy-Owl Trends in WashingtonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Pygmy-Owl in Washington. See the full index history below.

Northern Pygmy-Owl Population Forecast in Washington

If the recent trend holds, Northern Pygmy-Owl in Washington is projected to fall about 54% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.08). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-54%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±53.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Pygmy-Owl in Washington is projected to fall about 54% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.08). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19772029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.030.000.08
20260.030.000.08
20270.030.000.08
20280.030.000.08
20290.030.000.08

Northern Pygmy-Owl Survey Routes in Washington

Routes recording Northern Pygmy-Owl in Washington.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Montesand220052005
E. Mt. Adams220152015
Raymond 2220232023
Omak Creek220211998
Greenwater220222022
Twisp120222022
No Cascades120161996
Chewelah120032003
Kamilche119951995
Issaquah119801980
Turnbull Nwr120161997
L Pend O Nwr120172014
Mendota 2119931993
Reardan119851985
Bunker Hill120242024
Mcchord119971997
Rimrock120151987
Camas120062006
Sullivan Lake 2120192009
Twin Lakes120091983
Ilwaco120242022
South Elma119981998
Packwood120021977
Ellensburg120152015
Spring Lake120162016

Northern Pygmy-Owl Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.