BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Pygmy-Owl In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinGeneralists

Northern Pygmy-Owl in Great Basin has fallen sharply: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

-62%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
29YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Pygmy-Owl in Great Basin. See the full index history below.

Northern Pygmy-Owl In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Pygmy-Owl in Great Basin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.04). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±52.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Pygmy-Owl in Great Basin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.04). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.010.000.04
20250.010.000.04
20260.010.000.04
20270.010.000.04
20280.010.000.04

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Northern Pygmy-Owl in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mt HoodOREGON32018
Barnes ValOREGON21984
E. Mt. AdamsWASHINGTON22015
NubieberCALIFORNIA12007
LikelyCALIFORNIA12013
MacdoelCALIFORNIA12018
BartleCALIFORNIA12021
TionestaCALIFORNIA12021
Dell SpringOREGON11981
Fandango CanOREGON11988
PaisleyOREGON12008
Camp ShermanOREGON11992
Davis LakeOREGON12022
Lapham Res.OREGON11996
Wizard FallsOREGON12023
Bly 2OREGON12013
Badger CreekOREGON12021
SistersOREGON12008
PauninaOREGON12013
Crooked Riv.OREGON11999
LakeviewOREGON12018
TwispWASHINGTON12022
ReardanWASHINGTON11985
RimrockWASHINGTON12015
EllensburgWASHINGTON12015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.