BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Pygmy-Owl In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesGeneralists

Northern Pygmy-Owl in Northern Rockies has fallen sharply: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

-51%Since 1985TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
44Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
32YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Pygmy-Owl has fallen sharply in Northern Rockies: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Pygmy-Owl in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±90.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±90.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Pygmy-Owl in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±90.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19832027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.010.000.06
20240.010.000.06
20250.010.000.06
20260.010.000.06
20270.010.000.06

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Northern Pygmy-Owl in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CascadeIDAHO51984
CoolinIDAHO22008
Painted RockMONTANA21992
Whitefish LakeMONTANA22018
BarnhouseOREGON22022
Eagle CreekOREGON21996
Omak CreekWASHINGTON22021
MivodenIDAHO12005
AveryIDAHO11997
NezperceIDAHO11997
Lolo PassIDAHO12019
Baldy MountainIDAHO12013
N Fork Cda RIDAHO12019
Libby DamMONTANA12013
St RegisMONTANA12017
ArleeMONTANA11984
WoodmanMONTANA11993
Pablo Res.MONTANA12017
Inside RoadMONTANA12019
VictorMONTANA12011
GreenoughMONTANA11995
Elevation MtMONTANA11994
FloraOREGON11986
GraniteOREGON12022
Hash RockOREGON12005

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.