BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Pygmy-Owl In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauGeneralists

Northern Pygmy-Owl in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has declined: down 32% on the route-weighted index since 1988.

-32%Since 1988TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
31Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
28YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Pygmy-Owl in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau. See the full index history below.

Northern Pygmy-Owl In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Pygmy-Owl in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.03). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±83.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2026TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2026 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±83.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Pygmy-Owl in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.03). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±83.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19772026
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20220.010.000.03
20230.010.000.03
20240.010.000.03
20250.010.000.03
20260.010.000.03

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Northern Pygmy-Owl in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GuffeyCOLORADO22017
AngoraCOLORADO22011
House RockARIZONA11993
HarmonyCOLORADO11990
Cheesman LkCOLORADO12006
Lost LakeCOLORADO12015
UncompahgreCOLORADO12010
Buffalo ParkCOLORADO12021
FlattopsCOLORADO12015
ThomasvilleCOLORADO12016
Guanella PasCOLORADO12018
PinonCOLORADO11995
PaoniaCOLORADO12018
Groundhog RsCOLORADO12021
Comanche PkCOLORADO12005
Yellowjacket PassCOLORADO12014
Gold HillCOLORADO12001
Trail Ridge RoadCOLORADO12007
CebollaNEW-MEXICO12021
Fence LakeNEW-MEXICO11977
Mt. TaylorNEW-MEXICO12010
GallinasNEW-MEXICO12013
Bluewater LakeNEW-MEXICO12010
Wasatch NfUTAH11988
Main CanyonUTAH12021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.