BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Pygmy-Owl In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauBirds of prey

Northern Pygmy-Owl in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has declined: down 37% on the route-weighted index since 1988.

-37%Since 1988TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
29YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Pygmy-Owl in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau. See the full index history below.

Northern Pygmy-Owl In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Pygmy-Owl in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.03). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±77.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±77.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Pygmy-Owl in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.03). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±77.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19772030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.010.000.03
20270.010.000.03
20280.010.000.03
20290.010.000.03
20300.010.000.03

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Northern Pygmy-Owl in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
AngoraCOLORADO22011
House RockARIZONA11993
HarmonyCOLORADO11990
Cheesman LkCOLORADO12006
Lost LakeCOLORADO12015
UncompahgreCOLORADO12010
GuffeyCOLORADO12025
Buffalo ParkCOLORADO12021
FlattopsCOLORADO12015
ThomasvilleCOLORADO12016
Guanella PasCOLORADO12018
PinonCOLORADO11995
PaoniaCOLORADO12018
Groundhog RsCOLORADO12021
Comanche PkCOLORADO12005
Yellowjacket PassCOLORADO12014
Gold HillCOLORADO12001
Heeney 2COLORADO12025
Trail Ridge RoadCOLORADO12007
CebollaNEW-MEXICO12021
Fence LakeNEW-MEXICO11977
Mt. TaylorNEW-MEXICO12010
GallinasNEW-MEXICO12013
Bluewater LakeNEW-MEXICO12010
Wasatch NfUTAH11988

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.