BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Pygmy-Owl In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaGeneralists

Northern Pygmy-Owl in Coastal California has declined: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

-50%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
37Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Pygmy-Owl in Coastal California. See the full index history below.

Northern Pygmy-Owl In Coastal California Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Pygmy-Owl in Coastal California is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±390.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.08Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±390.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Pygmy-Owl in Coastal California is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±390.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.080.000.19
20240.080.000.19
20250.080.000.19
20260.080.000.19
20270.080.000.19

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording Northern Pygmy-Owl in Coastal California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
San Benito Mtn.CALIFORNIA32005
Mesa GrandeCALIFORNIA22002
ValyermoCALIFORNIA22012
AdelaidaCALIFORNIA21977
JacksonCALIFORNIA21975
Waterman GapCALIFORNIA22013
Glen EllenCALIFORNIA21995
Cal Hot SpgsCALIFORNIA22016
TomheadCALIFORNIA22006
Hough SpringsCALIFORNIA22004
CalpellaCALIFORNIA11981
RumseyCALIFORNIA11994
Santa YnezCALIFORNIA11988
Mt PinosCALIFORNIA11969
CoalingaCALIFORNIA12012
Point ReyesCALIFORNIA12002
CohassetCALIFORNIA12014
FairfaxCALIFORNIA11973
OnoCALIFORNIA11999
FolsomCALIFORNIA11991
Carmel ValCALIFORNIA12000
Lockwood ValCALIFORNIA12008
Elizabeth LkCALIFORNIA11976
Lake CachumaCALIFORNIA12013
White RiverCALIFORNIA11990

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.