BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Pygmy-Owl In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestBirds of prey

Northern Pygmy-Owl in Northern Pacific Rainforest has increased: up 39% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+39%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
82Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Pygmy-Owl in Northern Pacific Rainforest. See the full index history below.

Northern Pygmy-Owl In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Pygmy-Owl in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 27% by 2030 — from 0.13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.03–0.16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-27%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.09Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.03–0.1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Pygmy-Owl in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 27% by 2030 — from 0.13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.03–0.16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.090.030.16
20270.090.030.16
20280.090.030.16
20290.090.030.16
20300.090.030.16

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Northern Pygmy-Owl in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Redwood N.P. 2CALIFORNIA42012
ZaremboALASKA32017
Blue RiverOREGON32016
Mitkof IsleALASKA22019
Kuiu IslandALASKA22010
Rio DellCALIFORNIA21979
Burnt RanchCALIFORNIA22000
Friday RidgeCALIFORNIA22017
GazelleCALIFORNIA22021
Secret ValOREGON22010
Trask SummitOREGON22016
RuchOREGON22025
Harlan 2OREGON22025
GreenwaterWASHINGTON22022
MontesandWASHINGTON22005
Raymond 2WASHINGTON22023
JuneauALASKA12024
CraigALASKA12000
Thorne Bay 2ALASKA12025
Harlequin L.ALASKA12001
Crescent CtyCALIFORNIA11997
HoneydewCALIFORNIA11998
HullvilleCALIFORNIA12013
Fish RockCALIFORNIA11993
Shasta LakeCALIFORNIA12004

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.