BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Zone-tailed Hawk Population Trend in Arizona

All statesGeneralists

Zone-tailed Hawk in Arizona has declined: down 25% on the route-weighted index since 1988.

-25%Since 1988TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
32YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Zone-tailed Hawk Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Zone-tailed Hawk in Arizona. See the full index history below.

Zone-tailed Hawk Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Zone-tailed Hawk in Arizona is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±59.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Zone-tailed Hawk in Arizona is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19762029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.060.000.16
20260.060.000.16
20270.060.000.16
20280.060.000.16
20290.060.000.16

Zone-tailed Hawk Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Zone-tailed Hawk in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Portal220231977
Cutter220142014
Amado219991999
Dragoon120081995
Rucker119971997
Wikieup120042004
Prescott120031977
Pomerene120112001
San Simon119761976
Peña Blanca120211993
Patagonia120231988
Forest Lakes120192019
Bartlett Res120231993
Alpine119941994
Redington120191993
Mt. Graham120141998
Sunizona 2120242006
Peach Spring120232006
Carr Mtn120152014

Zone-tailed Hawk Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.