BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Zone-tailed Hawk Population Trend in Texas

All statesGeneralists

Zone-tailed Hawk in Texas has declined: down 36% on the route-weighted index since 1995.

-36%Since 1995TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
22YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Zone-tailed Hawk Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Zone-tailed Hawk in Texas. See the full index history below.

Zone-tailed Hawk Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Zone-tailed Hawk in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.03). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Zone-tailed Hawk in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.03). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19892029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.010.000.03
20260.010.000.03
20270.010.000.03
20280.010.000.03
20290.010.000.03

Zone-tailed Hawk Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Zone-tailed Hawk in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Leakey420172004
Presidio120102010
Pumpville120192019
Prairie Mtn.120172008
Allen Creek120222022
Rockspring120241995
Devils R Cyn120021999
Harper120232023
Toyahvale120192019
Comstock120082001
Indian Mtn120181989
Casa Piedra120232023
Montell120231997
Bear Mtn119991998
Utopia120231998

Zone-tailed Hawk Population Trend in Other States

arizonanew-mexico

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.