BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Golden Eagle Population Trend in Arizona

All statesGeneralists

Golden Eagle in Arizona has fallen sharply: down 69% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

-69%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
41YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Golden Eagle Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Golden Eagle has fallen sharply in Arizona: down 69% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Golden Eagle Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Golden Eagle in Arizona is projected to fall about 75% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±72.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-75%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±72.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Golden Eagle in Arizona is projected to fall about 75% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±72.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19732029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.020.000.11
20260.020.000.11
20270.020.000.10
20280.020.000.10
20290.010.000.10

Golden Eagle Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Golden Eagle in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Greasewood419961993
San Simon220241975
Castle Butte220061995
Navajo Trail220181994
Mt Trumbull119791974
House Rock120041978
Dragoon119971997
Portal120011975
Rose Wells119751973
Flagstaff119991999
Oraibi120221993
Hunt119961996
Peña Blanca120221975
Patagonia119901987
Sunizona119731973
Toroweap120142004
Riviera120192019
Williams120012001
Maine119971997
Alamo Res.119951995
Willow Beach 2120182018
Tsaile120182018
Willow Beach119901990
Peach Spring119921992
Seligman120171993

Golden Eagle Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradoidahomontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.