BirdAnalyst
Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Golden Eagle Population Trend in Alaska

All statesGeneralists

Golden Eagle in Alaska has collapsed: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

-77%Since 1984TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
34YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Golden Eagle Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Golden Eagle has collapsed in Alaska: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

Golden Eagle Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Golden Eagle in Alaska is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.08). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±117.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±117.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Golden Eagle in Alaska is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.08). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±117.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19822029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.030.000.08
20260.030.000.08
20270.030.000.08
20280.020.000.08
20290.020.000.08

Golden Eagle Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Golden Eagle in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Chiniak219931991
Donelly Dome220002000
Sheep Mtn219941985
Eagle120072007
Nabesna Road119891989
Maclaren119971982
Monahan120212018
Toklat120211983
Council120081993
Galbraith L.120242024
Salmon Lake120171995
Skagway120152015
Teller120041999
Pinoche Tral (Short)119841984
Delta119981998
Red Dog120232023
Savage120221997
Dietrich Cmp120221998
Hatcher Pass120022002
Galena (Short)120082008

Golden Eagle Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.