BirdAnalyst
Guild · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Generalists In Texas

All statesTexas

18 species in this guild. As a group they are -47%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1969.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Generalists as a group have declined in Texas, down 47% since 1969.

Generalists In Texas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Generalists in Texas is projected to fall about 27% by 2030 — from 8.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.5 (95% range 3.9–9.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-27%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.9–9.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Generalists in Texas is projected to fall about 27% by 2030 — from 8.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.5 (95% range 3.9–9.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20267.34.69.9
20277.14.49.7
20286.94.39.5
20296.74.19.4
20306.53.99.2

Member Species In Texas

Generalists species in Texas.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
House SparrowPasseridae-84%
Brown-headed CowbirdIcteridae-60%
Northern MockingbirdMimidae-53%
Chihuahuan RavenCorvidae-45%
Common Ground DoveColumbidae-44%
Rock PigeonColumbidae-37%
Bronzed CowbirdIcteridae-14%
Mourning DoveColumbidae+4%
American CrowCorvidae+20%
House FinchFringillidae+40%
Inca DoveColumbidae+52%
European StarlingSturnidae+86%
Common GrackleIcteridae+107%
Common RavenCorvidae+332%
White-winged DoveColumbidae+537%
Fish CrowCorvidae+555%
White-tipped DoveColumbidae+674%
Eurasian Collared-DoveColumbidae215×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.