BirdAnalyst
Guild · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Generalists In Texas

All statesTexas

101 species in this guild. As a group they are -47%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1969.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Generalists as a group have declined in Texas, down 47% since 1969.

Generalists In Texas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Generalists in Texas is projected to fall about 21% by 2029 — from 3.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 2.0–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-21%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.0–3.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±7.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Generalists in Texas is projected to fall about 21% by 2029 — from 3.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 2.0–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.12.34.0
20263.02.23.9
20273.02.13.8
20282.92.13.8
20292.92.03.7

Member Species In Texas

Generalists species in Texas.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Eastern Screech-OwlStrigidae-89%
House SparrowPasseridae-85%
Bachman's SparrowPasserellidae-83%
Baltimore OrioleIcteridae-83%
Gray CatbirdMimidae-82%
Loggerhead ShrikeLaniidae-81%
Orchard OrioleIcteridae-80%
Wood StorkCiconiidae-80%
Northern HarrierAccipitridae-79%
Spotted TowheePasserellidae-78%
Belted KingfisherAlcedinidae-77%
Hepatic TanagerCardinalidae-75%
AnhingaAnhingidae-73%
Black-headed GrosbeakCardinalidae-69%
Harris's HawkAccipitridae-68%
Scaled QuailOdontophoridae-65%
Lesser Prairie-ChickenPhasianidae-63%
Brown-headed CowbirdIcteridae-61%
OspreyPandionidae-61%
Ferruginous HawkAccipitridae-60%
Botteri's SparrowPasserellidae-56%
Northern MockingbirdMimidae-55%
Sharp-shinned HawkAccipitridae-55%
Prairie FalconFalconidae-53%
Common Ground DoveColumbidae-51%
Boat-tailed GrackleIcteridae-50%
Yellow-billed CuckooCuculidae-49%
Great Horned OwlStrigidae-49%
Plain ChachalacaCracidae-48%
Altamira OrioleIcteridae-48%
Varied BuntingCardinalidae-47%
Red-winged BlackbirdIcteridae-47%
Brown ThrasherMimidae-44%
Great-tailed GrackleIcteridae-42%
Rock PigeonColumbidae-41%
Chihuahuan RavenCorvidae-39%
Groove-billed AniCuculidae-38%
Western TanagerCardinalidae-38%
Canyon TowheePasserellidae-38%
Zone-tailed HawkAccipitridae-36%
Field SparrowPasserellidae-35%
Chipping SparrowPasserellidae-33%
Barred OwlStrigidae-33%
Rufous-crowned SparrowPasserellidae-33%
Golden EagleAccipitridae-29%
Ruby-throated HummingbirdTrochilidae-28%
Eastern TowheePasserellidae-26%
White-tailed KiteAccipitridae-24%
Black-chinned SparrowPasserellidae-21%
Buff-bellied HummingbirdTrochilidae-17%
Painted BuntingCardinalidae-13%
Elf OwlStrigidae-11%
Bald EagleAccipitridae-9%
Montezuma QuailOdontophoridae-7%
Mourning DoveColumbidae-6%
Woodhouse's Scrub-JayCorvidae-6%
Bronzed CowbirdIcteridae-6%
Lesser GoldfinchFringillidae-2%
American CrowCorvidae+4%
BushtitAegithalidae+7%
Bullock's OrioleIcteridae+10%
Turkey VultureCathartidae+12%
Inca DoveColumbidae+18%
House FinchFringillidae+20%
Broad-winged HawkAccipitridae+23%
Northern CardinalCardinalidae+25%
Black-chinned HummingbirdTrochilidae+28%
Scott's OrioleIcteridae+31%
Indigo BuntingCardinalidae+34%
American KestrelFalconidae+37%
American Barn OwlTytonidae+46%
Blue JayCorvidae+50%
Swainson's HawkAccipitridae+53%
European StarlingSturnidae+68%
Chihuahuan MeadowlarkIcteridae+68%
Red-tailed HawkAccipitridae+76%
Yellow-breasted ChatIcteriidae+81%
Common GrackleIcteridae+81%
Blue GrosbeakCardinalidae+85%
Summer TanagerCardinalidae+88%
Mississippi KiteAccipitridae+95%
Crissal ThrasherMimidae+96%
Wild TurkeyPhasianidae+127%
Red-shouldered HawkAccipitridae+137%
Seaside SparrowPasserellidae+145%
White-tailed HawkAccipitridae+193%
Yellow-headed BlackbirdIcteridae+266%
Cooper's HawkAccipitridae+320%
Burrowing OwlStrigidae+328%
Common RavenCorvidae+343%
Fish CrowCorvidae+412%
White-winged DoveColumbidae+485%
Hooded OrioleIcteridae+488%
White-tipped DoveColumbidae+583%
Crested CaracaraFalconidae+634%
Green JayCorvidae+634%
Audubon's OrioleIcteridae+664%
Olive SparrowPasserellidae+683%
Long-billed ThrasherMimidae+748%
Black VultureCathartidae11×
Eurasian Collared-DoveColumbidae203×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.