BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Chihuahuan Raven Population Trend in Texas

All statesGeneralists

Chihuahuan Raven in Texas has declined: down 45% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-45%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
105Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chihuahuan Raven Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chihuahuan Raven in Texas. See the full index history below.

Chihuahuan Raven Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Chihuahuan Raven in Texas is projected to fall about 21% by 2030 — from 0.74 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.58 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-21%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.58Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chihuahuan Raven in Texas is projected to fall about 21% by 2030 — from 0.74 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.58 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.650.001.6
20270.630.001.6
20280.620.001.6
20290.600.001.5
20300.580.001.5

Chihuahuan Raven Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Chihuahuan Raven in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ft. Davis3520222022
Van Horn2520252017
Clarendon1820211994
Dalhart1320251994
Texline1220251975
Plains1120171994
Laredo1020231994
Catarina 2920172011
Williams920251998
Floydada820241976
Frankel City820221975
Encinal 2820252011
Catarina620101970
Rankin620211979
Plains620251968
Pantex620251974
Wink619861975
Eldorado619771975
Tenmile620172002
Marfa620192004
Shields 2620252007
Slaughter520211975
Channing520181975
Catarina 3520252018
Pedro Creek520051996

Chihuahuan Raven Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.