BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chihuahuan Raven Population Trend in Arizona

All statesGeneralists

Chihuahuan Raven in Arizona has collapsed: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-78%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chihuahuan Raven Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chihuahuan Raven has collapsed in Arizona: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Chihuahuan Raven Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Chihuahuan Raven in Arizona is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.57 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±128.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±128.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chihuahuan Raven in Arizona is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.57 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±128.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.002.7
20260.000.002.7
20270.000.002.7
20280.000.002.7
20290.000.002.7

Chihuahuan Raven Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Chihuahuan Raven in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mcneal1620241992
San Simon1420221982
Florence1319681968
Sunizona1019971968
Ajo819701970
The Gap719731973
Amado720231993
Patagonia420041968
Sunizona 2420242001
Peña Blanca420101980
Portal220221990
Dragoon220051993
Rucker220091993
Sahuarita220101994
Cibola Lake119961996
Red Rock119991995
Pomerene120221968

Chihuahuan Raven Population Trend in Other States

coloradokansasnew-mexicooklahomatexas

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.