BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chihuahuan Raven

CorvidaeGeneralistsCorvus cryptoleucus

Chihuahuan Raven has risen sharply: up 57% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+57%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
200RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Chihuahuan Raven

The Chihuahuan Raven (Corvus cryptoleucus) is a North American member of the Crows, Jays & Magpies (Corvidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the generalists.

Size
10–27.5 in long (25–70 cm) — a medium to large songbird (typical for the family)
Habitat
A broad range of open and wooded habitats, often near people.
Diet
An opportunistic mix of insects, seeds, fruit and scraps.
Range
Recorded on 200 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 6 states, most concentrated in the Shortgrass Prairie.
Family
Corvidae · Generalists

Notable Chihuahuan Raven TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chihuahuan Raven has risen sharply in surveyed states: up 57% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Chihuahuan Raven Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Chihuahuan Raven is projected to rise about 49% by 2029 — from 0.18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.28 (95% range 0.15–0.40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+49%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.28Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.15–0.4095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chihuahuan Raven is projected to rise about 49% by 2029 — from 0.18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.28 (95% range 0.15–0.40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.270.140.39
20260.270.150.40
20270.270.150.40
20280.270.150.40
20290.280.150.40

Where the Chihuahuan Raven Is Detected

BBS routes recording Chihuahuan Raven, sized by most recent count.

Chihuahuan Raven Population Trend by State

Chihuahuan Raven population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Arizona-78%197017
Colorado+285%197420
Kansasinsufficient datan/a2
New Mexico+39%197050
Oklahoma12×19727
Texas-39%1969104

Chihuahuan Raven Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Chihuahuan Raven population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau-44%198112
Shortgrass Prairie+10%197069
Central Mixed Grass Prairie+208%197420
Edwards Plateau-59%19755
Oaks and Prairies-54%19716
Sierra Madre Occidental-85%197014
Chihuahuan Desert+121%196947
Tamaulipan Brushlands-90%196920

Chihuahuan Raven Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 57% since 1969.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.