BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chihuahuan Raven Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesGeneralists

Chihuahuan Raven in New Mexico has increased: up 39% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+39%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chihuahuan Raven Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chihuahuan Raven in New Mexico. See the full index history below.

Chihuahuan Raven Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Chihuahuan Raven in New Mexico is projected to rise about 51% by 2029 — from 5.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.9 (95% range 3.5–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+51%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.5–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chihuahuan Raven in New Mexico is projected to rise about 51% by 2029 — from 5.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.9 (95% range 3.5–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257.73.312
20267.83.412
20277.83.412
20287.83.412
20297.93.512

Chihuahuan Raven Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Chihuahuan Raven in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Maljamar6119771975
Pep4720241992
Hobbs2620241994
Gage2520241968
Raton2519941994
Lake Valley1620241989
Variadero1520221994
Jornada1420241974
Red Rock1420241992
Floyd1320241968
Caprock1320241977
Deming1319751968
Mountainair1320231992
Farley1220241979
Mesilla1220001992
Hatchet Peak1120241992
Columbus1120241992
Pastura1020241993
Rodeo920241974
Claunch 2920142001
Roswell820231968
Valencia719971988
Corona East719951993
Engle719891979
Claunch619991978

Chihuahuan Raven Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.