BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Chihuahuan Raven In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauGeneralists

Chihuahuan Raven in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has fallen sharply: down 69% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

-69%Since 1981TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
42YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chihuahuan Raven has fallen sharply in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: down 69% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

Chihuahuan Raven In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Chihuahuan Raven in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 180% by 2030 — from 0.11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.30 (95% range 0.00–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±837.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+180%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.30Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±837.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chihuahuan Raven in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 180% by 2030 — from 0.11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.30 (95% range 0.00–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±837.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19732030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.320.001.0
20270.320.001.0
20280.310.001.0
20290.310.001.0
20300.300.001.0

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Chihuahuan Raven in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PasturaNEW-MEXICO152025
MountainairNEW-MEXICO132023
Claunch 2NEW-MEXICO92014
The GapARIZONA71973
ValenciaNEW-MEXICO71997
Corona EastNEW-MEXICO71995
ClaunchNEW-MEXICO61999
TorreonNEW-MEXICO52013
GardnerCOLORADO12025
Fence LakeNEW-MEXICO12024
Horse MtnNEW-MEXICO12024
Gallo ArroyoNEW-MEXICO12021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.