BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chihuahuan Raven In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertGeneralists

Chihuahuan Raven in Chihuahuan Desert has surged: up 121% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+121%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
47Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chihuahuan Raven has surged in Chihuahuan Desert: up 121% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Chihuahuan Raven In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Chihuahuan Raven in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 23% by 2029 — from 4.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.9 (95% range 2.8–9.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+23%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.8–9.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chihuahuan Raven in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 23% by 2029 — from 4.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.9 (95% range 2.8–9.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.72.58.8
20265.72.68.9
20275.82.68.9
20285.82.79.0
20295.92.89.1

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Chihuahuan Raven in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ft. DavisTEXAS352022
Van HornTEXAS302024
GageNEW-MEXICO252024
Lake ValleyNEW-MEXICO162024
JornadaNEW-MEXICO142024
Red RockNEW-MEXICO142024
DemingNEW-MEXICO131975
MesillaNEW-MEXICO122000
Hatchet PeakNEW-MEXICO112024
ColumbusNEW-MEXICO112024
RodeoNEW-MEXICO92024
RoswellNEW-MEXICO82023
EngleNEW-MEXICO71989
MarfaTEXAS62019
SlaughterTEXAS52021
Capitan Mtn.NEW-MEXICO42017
EscondidaNEW-MEXICO42022
Hot SpringsTEXAS41996
AltudaTEXAS42022
Sunshine WllNEW-MEXICO32024
CornudasTEXAS32018
PresidioTEXAS32019
Ft. StocktonTEXAS32022
Sierra BlancTEXAS32024
CloudcroftNEW-MEXICO21979

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.