BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Chihuahuan Raven In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertGeneralists

Chihuahuan Raven in Chihuahuan Desert has risen sharply: up 57% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+57%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
47Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chihuahuan Raven has risen sharply in Chihuahuan Desert: up 57% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Chihuahuan Raven In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Chihuahuan Raven in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 101% by 2030 — from 2.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.7 (95% range 2.5–8.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+101%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.5–8.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chihuahuan Raven in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 101% by 2030 — from 2.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.7 (95% range 2.5–8.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.52.38.7
20275.62.48.8
20285.62.48.8
20295.72.58.9
20305.72.58.9

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Chihuahuan Raven in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ft. DavisTEXAS352022
Red RockNEW-MEXICO262025
Van HornTEXAS252025
Lake ValleyNEW-MEXICO162024
RodeoNEW-MEXICO142025
DemingNEW-MEXICO131975
GageNEW-MEXICO122025
MesillaNEW-MEXICO122000
Sunshine WllNEW-MEXICO82025
Hatchet PeakNEW-MEXICO72025
EngleNEW-MEXICO71989
MarfaTEXAS62019
SlaughterTEXAS52021
Capitan Mtn.NEW-MEXICO42017
EscondidaNEW-MEXICO42022
Hot SpringsTEXAS41996
AltudaTEXAS42022
Ft. StocktonTEXAS42025
JornadaNEW-MEXICO32025
CornudasTEXAS32018
PresidioTEXAS32019
Sierra BlancTEXAS32024
CloudcroftNEW-MEXICO21979
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO22019
Bitter LakeNEW-MEXICO22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.