BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-tipped Dove Population Trend in Texas

All statesGeneralists

White-tipped Dove in Texas has surged: up 583% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+583%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable White-tipped Dove Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-tipped Dove has surged in Texas: up 582% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

White-tipped Dove Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, White-tipped Dove in Texas is projected to rise about 45% by 2029 — from 0.26 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.38 (95% range 0.15–0.60). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±110%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+45%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.38Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.15–0.6095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±110%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-tipped Dove in Texas is projected to rise about 45% by 2029 — from 0.26 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.38 (95% range 0.15–0.60). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±110%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.350.120.58
20260.360.130.58
20270.360.140.59
20280.370.140.60
20290.380.150.60

White-tipped Dove Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording White-tipped Dove in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sejita1820241995
George West1120242009
Encinal720101993
San Pedro720231998
L. Atascosa Nwr620231998
Campbellton620182008
Millett520122009
Guerra520231990
Laredo420192002
Three Rivers320242014
Leakey320192019
Indian Mtn320242017
Rachal220231991
Mirando City220182018
San Ygnacio219811977
Catarina220102010
Millett 2220242021
Encinal 2220232011
Catarina 3220232022
El Sauz220231993
Catarina 2220142011
Lag Atascosa120231975
Agua Nueva120132008
Zapata119871971
Kingsville120242024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.