BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Common Ground Dove Population Trend in Texas

All statesGeneralists

Common Ground Dove in Texas has declined: down 44% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-44%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
96Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Ground Dove Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Common Ground Dove in Texas. See the full index history below.

Common Ground Dove Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Common Ground Dove in Texas is projected to rise about 43% by 2030 — from 0.94 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.12–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±128%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+43%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.12–2.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±128%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Ground Dove in Texas is projected to rise about 43% by 2030 — from 0.94 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.12–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±128%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.40.142.6
20271.30.132.6
20281.30.132.6
20291.30.132.6
20301.30.122.6

Common Ground Dove Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Common Ground Dove in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
L. Atascosa Nwr2620251998
El Sauz2420231993
Raymondville2120251969
Rachal1220231967
San Ygnacio1219851967
Catarina1220101970
Millett1220121995
Three Rivers1120251994
Zapata1019871967
Dilley1020252019
Millett 21020242013
Schroeder919971967
Guerra920251988
Brite920251994
Mcfaddin820162006
Dripping Spg720251999
Hondo620251969
Prairie Mtn.620252013
Goliad Prairie620162004
Fannin520251998
Yoakum520251994
Loyola Beach 2520242010
Mirando City420251970
Indianola420021999
Campbellton420241970

Common Ground Dove Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.