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Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Ground Dove Population Trend in Texas

All statesGeneralists

Common Ground Dove in Texas has fallen sharply: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-51%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
96Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Ground Dove Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Ground Dove has fallen sharply in Texas: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Common Ground Dove Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Common Ground Dove in Texas is projected to rise about 104% by 2029 — from 0.68 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.16–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±142.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+104%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.16–2.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±142.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Ground Dove in Texas is projected to rise about 104% by 2029 — from 0.68 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.16–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±142.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.40.172.6
20261.40.162.6
20271.40.162.6
20281.40.162.6
20291.40.162.6

Common Ground Dove Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Common Ground Dove in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
El Sauz2420231993
Hondo1520241969
Guerra1520181988
Raymondville1420241969
Rachal1220231967
San Ygnacio1219851967
Catarina1220101970
Millett1220121995
Zapata1019871967
Millett 21020242013
Schroeder919971967
Mcfaddin820162006
Dilley620242019
Three Rivers620241994
Goliad Prairie620162004
Encinal 2520242011
Devils R Cyn520241995
Loyola Beach 2520242010
Mirando City420241970
Indianola420021999
Campbellton420241970
La Pryor420171969
San Saba420171976
Fannin420231998
Laredo420191995

Common Ground Dove Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.