BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Ground Dove

ColumbidaeGeneralistsColumbina passerina

Common Ground Dove has fallen sharply: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-57%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
410RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Common Ground Dove

The Common Ground Dove (Columbina passerina) is a North American member of the Pigeons & Doves (Columbidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the generalists.

Size
6–14.5 in long (15–37 cm) — a plump-bodied bird (typical for the family)
Habitat
A broad range of open and wooded habitats, often near people.
Diet
An opportunistic mix of insects, seeds, fruit and scraps.
Range
Recorded on 410 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 12 states, most concentrated in the Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Family
Columbidae · Generalists

Notable Common Ground Dove TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Ground Dove has fallen sharply in surveyed states: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Common Ground Dove Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Ground Dove is projected to fall about 21% by 2029 — from 0.23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.03–0.33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-21%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.18Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.03–0.3395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Ground Dove is projected to fall about 21% by 2029 — from 0.23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.03–0.33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.190.040.34
20260.190.040.34
20270.180.030.34
20280.180.030.33
20290.180.030.33

Where the Common Ground Dove Is Detected

BBS routes recording Common Ground Dove, sized by most recent count.

Common Ground Dove Population Trend by State

Common Ground Dove population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alabama+57%196848
Arizona-62%197024
California-73%197412
Florida-67%1968124
Georgia-32%196874
Louisiana-86%19727
Mississippi-11%20006
Nevadainsufficient datan/a1
New Mexicoinsufficient datan/a3
North Carolinainsufficient datan/a1
South Carolina-66%196914
Texas-51%196996

Common Ground Dove Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Common Ground Dove population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Edwards Plateau+379%197617
Oaks and Prairies-13%196919
Mississippi Alluvial Valley-87%19723
Southeastern Coastal Plain+31%1968170
Piedmont-41%197617
Peninsular Florida-78%196880
Sonoran and Mojave Deserts-85%197123
Sierra Madre Occidental-62%197010
Chihuahuan Desert+101%199612
Tamaulipan Brushlands-40%196928
Gulf Coastal Prairie+79%197122

Common Ground Dove Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it down about 57% since 1968.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.