BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 20 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Ground Dove In Edwards Plateau

All regionsEdwards PlateauGeneralists

Common Ground Dove in Edwards Plateau has surged: up 379% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

+379%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
40YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Ground Dove has surged in Edwards Plateau: up 379% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Ground Dove in Edwards Plateau is projected to rise about 196% by 2029 — from 0.69 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.21–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±442.4%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+196%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.21–3.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±442.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Ground Dove in Edwards Plateau is projected to rise about 196% by 2029 — from 0.69 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.21–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±442.4%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.90.093.7
20261.90.123.8
20272.00.153.8
20282.00.183.8
20292.00.213.9

Routes In Edwards Plateau

Routes recording Common Ground Dove in Edwards Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
San SabaTEXAS42017
MontellTEXAS32024
HarperTEXAS22018
KempnerTEXAS22018
Indian MtnTEXAS22024
Dripping SpgTEXAS22017
Pidcoke 2TEXAS22024
LeanderTEXAS22005
Prairie Mtn.TEXAS22023
Allen CreekTEXAS22011
RockspringTEXAS22024
BoerneTEXAS12019
UtopiaTEXAS12021
FitzhughTEXAS11970
Valley SpgsTEXAS12024
ManorTEXAS12018
LeakeyTEXAS12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.