BirdAnalyst
Species · California · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Ground Dove Population Trend in California

All statesGeneralists

Common Ground Dove in California has fallen sharply: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

-73%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
38YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Ground Dove Trends in CaliforniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Ground Dove has fallen sharply in California: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Common Ground Dove Population Forecast in California

If the recent trend holds, Common Ground Dove in California is projected to stay roughly flat through 2023, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±114.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2023TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2023 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±114.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Ground Dove in California is projected to stay roughly flat through 2023, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±114.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712023
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20190.010.000.06
20200.010.000.06
20210.000.000.05
20220.000.000.05
20230.000.000.05

Common Ground Dove Survey Routes in California

Routes recording Common Ground Dove in California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Imperial Dam620101973
Alamo River420181973
Parker Dam220072003
Glamis220171977
Palo Verde220121974
Coachella Cn120001977
Foster Park119921987
Oak Grove120052005
San Ysidro120032003
Brawley120071971
Niland120151977
Blythe119771973

Common Ground Dove Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.