BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Common Ground Dove Population Trend in Arizona

All statesGeneralists

Common Ground Dove in Arizona has declined: down 32% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-32%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Ground Dove Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Common Ground Dove in Arizona. See the full index history below.

Common Ground Dove Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Common Ground Dove in Arizona is projected to fall about 80% by 2030 — from 0.81 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.00–0.67). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-80%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.16Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±49.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Ground Dove in Arizona is projected to fall about 80% by 2030 — from 0.81 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.00–0.67). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.180.000.69
20270.170.000.69
20280.170.000.68
20290.160.000.68
20300.160.000.67

Common Ground Dove Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Common Ground Dove in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dateland2020251998
Amado720251993
Cutter 2520162015
Ajo 2420192009
Patagonia320251969
Red Rock320141997
Cactus Forest320112002
Portal220242024
Peña Blanca220241979
Red Rock 2220162016
Redington220231993
Organ Pipe120212021
Florence119761971
Laguna120031968
Coolidge119841974
Pomerene120251968
San Simon119721972
Palo Verde 2120142014
Alamo Res.120232009
Skull Valley120132013
Araby120211993
Mcneal120252003
Sunizona 2120252009
Casa Grande120211997

Common Ground Dove Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.