BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Ground Dove Population Trend in Arizona

All statesGeneralists

Common Ground Dove in Arizona has fallen sharply: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-62%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Ground Dove Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Ground Dove has fallen sharply in Arizona: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Common Ground Dove Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Common Ground Dove in Arizona is projected to fall about 68% by 2029 — from 0.34 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.60). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-68%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Ground Dove in Arizona is projected to fall about 68% by 2029 — from 0.34 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.60). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.130.000.62
20260.130.000.62
20270.120.000.61
20280.120.000.60
20290.110.000.60

Common Ground Dove Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Common Ground Dove in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cutter 2520162015
Amado520231993
Pomerene420241968
Patagonia420241969
Ajo 2420192009
Red Rock320141997
Cactus Forest320112002
Portal220242024
Dateland220161998
Peña Blanca220241979
Red Rock 2220162016
Redington220231993
Mcneal220232003
Organ Pipe120212021
Florence119761971
Laguna120031968
Coolidge119841974
San Simon119721972
Palo Verde 2120142014
Alamo Res.120232009
Skull Valley120132013
Araby120211993
Sunizona 2120232009
Casa Grande120211997

Common Ground Dove Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.