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Species · Florida · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Ground Dove Population Trend in Florida

All statesGeneralists

Common Ground Dove in Florida has fallen sharply: down 67% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-67%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
124Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Ground Dove Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Ground Dove has fallen sharply in Florida: down 67% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Common Ground Dove Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Common Ground Dove in Florida is projected to fall about 68% by 2029 — from 4.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.00–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-68%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±51.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Ground Dove in Florida is projected to fall about 68% by 2029 — from 4.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.00–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.80.005.0
20261.70.004.9
20271.60.004.8
20281.50.004.7
20291.40.004.5

Common Ground Dove Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Common Ground Dove in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
St Lucie1820241987
Devils Gardn1820241987
Kendall1419911987
Broad Branch1320241967
Myakka Head1320111966
Alturas1319861971
Holey Land1320241987
Betts1120241987
Sandy1120141987
Webb1120241990
Romeo1020241966
Gardner1019991987
Clewiston1020232015
Pinetta920241987
Kenansville820241967
Callahan820241987
Shawano820021987
Citrus820242010
San Antonio720241967
Ridge Harbor720241991
Dupuis W.E.A720241994
Scottsmoor620241968
Blackwater620241990
Miller Xrds620191987
Bloxham620191992

Common Ground Dove Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.