BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 36 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Ground Dove In Tamaulipan Brushlands

All regionsTamaulipan BrushlandsGeneralists

Common Ground Dove in Tamaulipan Brushlands has declined: down 40% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-40%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Common Ground Dove in Tamaulipan Brushlands. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Ground Dove in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to rise about 22% by 2029 — from 5.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.5 (95% range 0.00–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+22%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±68%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Ground Dove in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to rise about 22% by 2029 — from 5.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.5 (95% range 0.00–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.80.0015
20266.70.0015
20276.70.0014
20286.60.0014
20296.50.0014

Routes In Tamaulipan Brushlands

Routes recording Common Ground Dove in Tamaulipan Brushlands.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
El SauzTEXAS242023
HondoTEXAS152024
GuerraTEXAS152018
RaymondvilleTEXAS142024
RachalTEXAS122023
San YgnacioTEXAS121985
CatarinaTEXAS122010
MillettTEXAS122012
ZapataTEXAS101987
Millett 2TEXAS102024
DilleyTEXAS62024
Encinal 2TEXAS52024
Mirando CityTEXAS42024
La PryorTEXAS42017
LaredoTEXAS42019
RandadoTEXAS32024
EncinalTEXAS32010
El IndioTEXAS32001
SejitaTEXAS32024
Pedro CreekTEXAS32005
Agua NuevaTEXAS22023
George WestTEXAS22024
Catarina 2TEXAS22017
Catarina 3TEXAS22024
ProgresoTEXAS22011

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.