BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Ground Dove In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalGeneralists

Common Ground Dove in Sierra Madre Occidental has fallen sharply: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-62%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Ground Dove has fallen sharply in Sierra Madre Occidental: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Common Ground Dove In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Ground Dove in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.67 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±121.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±121.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Ground Dove in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.67 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±121.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.020.001.4
20260.000.001.4
20270.000.001.4
20280.000.001.4
20290.000.001.4

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Common Ground Dove in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
AmadoARIZONA52023
PomereneARIZONA42024
PatagoniaARIZONA42024
Peña BlancaARIZONA22024
RedingtonARIZONA22023
McnealARIZONA22023
PortalARIZONA22024
San SimonARIZONA11972
Skull ValleyARIZONA12013
Sunizona 2ARIZONA12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.