BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Ground Dove In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaGeneralists

Common Ground Dove in Peninsular Florida has collapsed: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-78%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
80Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Ground Dove has collapsed in Peninsular Florida: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Common Ground Dove In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Ground Dove in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 95% by 2029 — from 4.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.00–5.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±78.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-95%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.23Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±78.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Ground Dove in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 95% by 2029 — from 4.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.00–5.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±78.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.00.006.3
20260.810.006.1
20270.620.005.9
20280.420.005.7
20290.230.005.5

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Common Ground Dove in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
St LucieFLORIDA182024
Devils GardnFLORIDA182024
KendallFLORIDA141991
Myakka HeadFLORIDA132011
AlturasFLORIDA131986
Holey LandFLORIDA132024
SandyFLORIDA112014
WebbFLORIDA112024
RomeoFLORIDA102024
GardnerFLORIDA101999
ClewistonFLORIDA102023
KenansvilleFLORIDA82024
ShawanoFLORIDA82002
CitrusFLORIDA82024
San AntonioFLORIDA72024
Ridge HarborFLORIDA72024
Dupuis W.E.AFLORIDA72024
ScottsmoorFLORIDA62024
AlvaFLORIDA62017
Lake BuffumFLORIDA62024
NobletonFLORIDA52024
SebastianFLORIDA51992
Punta GordaFLORIDA52014
CrewsvilleFLORIDA52024
Card SoundFLORIDA52018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.