BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Common Ground Dove In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaGeneralists

Common Ground Dove in Peninsular Florida has collapsed: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-76%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
80Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Ground Dove has collapsed in Peninsular Florida: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Common Ground Dove In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Ground Dove in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 93% by 2030 — from 3.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.26 (95% range 0.00–5.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±81.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-93%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.26Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±81.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Ground Dove in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 93% by 2030 — from 3.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.26 (95% range 0.00–5.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±81.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.00.006.3
20270.830.006.1
20280.640.005.9
20290.450.005.7
20300.260.005.5

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Common Ground Dove in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CrewsvilleFLORIDA252025
KendallFLORIDA141991
Myakka HeadFLORIDA132011
AlturasFLORIDA131986
SandyFLORIDA112014
Devils GardnFLORIDA112025
GardnerFLORIDA101999
ClewistonFLORIDA102023
Dupuis W.E.AFLORIDA102025
NobletonFLORIDA92025
CitrusFLORIDA92025
St AugustineFLORIDA82025
ShawanoFLORIDA82002
Ridge HarborFLORIDA82025
Ft LonesomeFLORIDA72025
San AntonioFLORIDA62025
ScottsmoorFLORIDA62025
KenansvilleFLORIDA62025
St LucieFLORIDA62025
AlvaFLORIDA62017
Lake BuffumFLORIDA62024
SebastianFLORIDA51992
Punta GordaFLORIDA52014
Card SoundFLORIDA52018
WebbFLORIDA52025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.