BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Common Ground Dove In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieGeneralists

Common Ground Dove in Gulf Coastal Prairie has surged: up 98% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+98%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Ground Dove has surged in Gulf Coastal Prairie: up 98% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Common Ground Dove In Gulf Coastal Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Ground Dove in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 47% by 2030 — from 1.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 0.21–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±218.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+47%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.21–3.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±218.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Ground Dove in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 47% by 2030 — from 1.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 0.21–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±218.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.00.123.8
20272.00.143.8
20282.00.173.9
20292.00.193.9
20302.10.213.9

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Common Ground Dove in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
L. Atascosa NwrTEXAS262025
McfaddinTEXAS82016
Goliad PrairieTEXAS62016
Loyola Beach 2TEXAS52024
IndianolaTEXAS42002
Lag AtascosaTEXAS32025
Hinkles FerTEXAS31988
Rock IslandTEXAS31980
Loyola BeachTEXAS32009
Bayside 2TEXAS32000
HackberryLOUISIANA21993
WinnieTEXAS21981
DanburyTEXAS22023
Oyster LakeTEXAS22018
BaysideTEXAS21996
Bayside 3TEXAS22024
EstherLOUISIANA12022
Ltl ChenierLOUISIANA12007
PetronilaTEXAS12016
StowellTEXAS11993
ChinquapinTEXAS12025
San PedroTEXAS12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.