BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Bronzed Cowbird Population Trend in Texas

All statesGeneralists

Bronzed Cowbird in Texas has edged down: down 14% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-14%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
94Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bronzed Cowbird Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Bronzed Cowbird in Texas. See the full index history below.

Bronzed Cowbird Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Bronzed Cowbird in Texas is projected to rise about 38% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.00–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±70.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+38%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±70.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bronzed Cowbird in Texas is projected to rise about 38% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.00–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±70.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.60.023.2
20271.60.003.2
20281.60.003.2
20291.60.003.2
20301.60.003.1

Bronzed Cowbird Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Bronzed Cowbird in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Progreso7920111994
L. Atascosa Nwr6520251998
Raymondville4520251969
Loyola Beach4020091994
Millett3020121995
Loyola Beach 21720252010
Kingsville1520241967
Rachal1420231967
San Pedro1420231996
Sejita1320241994
Zapata1219871967
Agua Nueva1120231969
Lag Atascosa920251969
San Ygnacio919851967
Heidelberg820242013
Mirando City720251972
Encinal720101969
George West720251967
Dilley720252025
Guerra720181988
Comstock620171998
Shafter619851985
Randado520251967
Hondo520251972
Fannin520101998

Bronzed Cowbird Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.