BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bronzed Cowbird Population Trend in Texas

All statesGeneralists

Bronzed Cowbird in Texas has held roughly steady: down 6% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-6%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
93Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bronzed Cowbird Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Bronzed Cowbird in Texas. See the full index history below.

Bronzed Cowbird Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Bronzed Cowbird in Texas is projected to rise about 54% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.01–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±89.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+54%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–3.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±89.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bronzed Cowbird in Texas is projected to rise about 54% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.01–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±89.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.70.063.3
20261.60.043.2
20271.60.033.2
20281.60.023.2
20291.60.013.2

Bronzed Cowbird Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Bronzed Cowbird in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Progreso7920111994
Loyola Beach 24620242010
Loyola Beach4020091994
L. Atascosa Nwr3220231998
Raymondville3020241969
Millett3020121995
Kingsville1520241967
Rachal1420231967
San Pedro1420231996
Sejita1320241994
Zapata1219871967
Agua Nueva1120231969
George West1120241967
San Ygnacio919851967
Heidelberg820242013
Encinal720101969
Guerra720181988
Three Rivers720241994
Lag Atascosa620241969
Comstock620171998
Shafter619851985
Pumpville620112006
Hondo520241972
Fannin520101998
Laredo520181994

Bronzed Cowbird Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.