BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bronzed Cowbird Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesGeneralists

Bronzed Cowbird in New Mexico has declined: down 36% on the route-weighted index since 1992.

-36%Since 1992TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
21YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bronzed Cowbird Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Bronzed Cowbird in New Mexico. See the full index history below.

Bronzed Cowbird Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Bronzed Cowbird in New Mexico is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2026TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2026 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bronzed Cowbird in New Mexico is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19772026
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20220.030.000.07
20230.030.000.06
20240.030.000.06
20250.020.000.06
20260.020.000.06

Bronzed Cowbird Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Bronzed Cowbird in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Columbus220131998
Gage220121977
San Simon119891989
Bitter Lake120162014
Hobbs120142014
Cooley Lake120172014
Hatchet Peak120071994
Jornada120141997
Rodeo120212001

Bronzed Cowbird Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.