BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Grackle Population Trend in Texas

All statesGeneralists

Common Grackle in Texas has surged: up 81% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+81%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
174Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Grackle Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Grackle has surged in Texas: up 81% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Common Grackle Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Common Grackle in Texas is projected to rise about 47% by 2029 — from 5.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.7 (95% range 0.00–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±82.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+47%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±82.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Grackle in Texas is projected to rise about 47% by 2029 — from 5.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.7 (95% range 0.00–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±82.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20258.00.0020
20268.00.0020
20277.90.0020
20287.80.0020
20297.70.0020

Common Grackle Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Common Grackle in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Chandler9020041968
Henrietta8420221971
Mount Zion8320241994
Katy5820241968
Chinquapin5820241995
Booker5120241976
Floydada5020232003
Weinert4119941972
Wolfe City3519871969
Channing3520181970
Gause3319971967
Indianola3120241971
Twichell2720231996
Texline2620241975
Muldoon2420241971
Charlie2320241994
Rock Island2120241967
Blue Ridge2120241988
Beaver Creek2120241994
Stowell2020221972
Manor2020242012
Hobson1820241992
Port Acres1820241994
Girard1820221994
Williams1820241998

Common Grackle Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.