BirdAnalyst
Species · Ohio · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Common Grackle Population Trend in Ohio

All statesGeneralists

Common Grackle in Ohio has fallen sharply: down 67% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-67%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
89Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Grackle Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Grackle has fallen sharply in Ohio: down 67% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Common Grackle Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Common Grackle in Ohio is projected to rise about 18% by 2030 — from 25 in 2025 to a central estimate of 30 (95% range 2.5–57). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+18%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
30Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.5–5795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Grackle in Ohio is projected to rise about 18% by 2030 — from 25 in 2025 to a central estimate of 30 (95% range 2.5–57). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026358.063
2027346.661
2028335.260
2029313.959
2030302.557

Common Grackle Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Common Grackle in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Harveysburg39119961966
Wilmington28719961966
Newport27419941966
W Carrollton20920151989
Bismark19619951967
Tecumseh15319821966
Peru13819781966
Dunlap11719881966
Graytown11019841966
Napoleon10320251966
Kings Creek9920151992
Troy9419961966
Vickery8020251996
Garrettsvile7619911966
Greasy Ridge7519911966
Westerville7319851966
Bloomville6920251992
Omega6920241966
Lockport6720251966
Cumberland5720171966
Botkins5620191992
Xenia5520181966
Hebron5520251966
Ash Ridge5320211992
Darrtown5020211966

Common Grackle Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.