BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Common Grackle Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesGeneralists

Common Grackle in Arkansas has collapsed: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-79%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
56Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Grackle Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Grackle has collapsed in Arkansas: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Common Grackle Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Common Grackle in Arkansas is projected to fall about 64% by 2030 — from 4.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.00–9.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-64%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–9.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Grackle in Arkansas is projected to fall about 64% by 2030 — from 4.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.00–9.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.00.0012
20273.40.0012
20282.90.0011
20292.30.0010
20301.70.009.9

Common Grackle Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Common Grackle in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Augusta6320011967
Whitton6119911967
Waldron5620042004
Harrisburg4720191967
Massard4720221967
Lafe2920222017
Farwell2720182010
Maynard2620251967
England2520252010
Hickory Ridge2420222010
Wilson2020251993
Avoca1620241967
Coal Hill1520231967
Dell1420252010
Augusta 21420162002
Stark1320251967
Blakely1219991969
Ashdown1020231967
Saffell1020191967
South Bend720251967
Ulm620251987
West Tyler519841975
Centerton520252010
Gillett520252010
Kelso520162010

Common Grackle Population Trend in Other States

alabamacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.