BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Grackle Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesGeneralists

Common Grackle in New Mexico has fallen sharply: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

-73%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Grackle Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Grackle has fallen sharply in New Mexico: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Common Grackle Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Common Grackle in New Mexico is projected to fall about 10% by 2029 — from 0.39 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.35 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±78.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-10%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.35Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±78.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Grackle in New Mexico is projected to fall about 10% by 2029 — from 0.39 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.35 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±78.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.400.001.2
20260.390.001.2
20270.370.001.2
20280.360.001.2
20290.350.001.2

Common Grackle Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Common Grackle in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cooley Lake1520241972
Capulin819931993
Valencia619971970
Tucumcari519751975
Floyd520182018
Angel Fire520021993
Roswell419711971
Variadero420082003
Horse Mtn319931993
Pep320192003
Grenville220241980
Sedan220231996
Vallecitos220011998
Gallinas220161992
Rosebud220232010
Pastura220162002
Cebolla120051982
Ojo Sarco120171999
Farley120242000
Pecos120101994
Angel Fire 2120182005
Maxwell120191997
Clovis120182003
Laborcita119931993
La Plata120052005

Common Grackle Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.