BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Grackle Population Trend in Missouri

All statesGeneralists

Common Grackle in Missouri has collapsed: down 83% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-83%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
93Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Grackle Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Grackle has collapsed in Missouri: down 83% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Common Grackle Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Common Grackle in Missouri is projected to fall about 84% by 2029 — from 8.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.00–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-84%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Grackle in Missouri is projected to fall about 84% by 2029 — from 8.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.00–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.20.0019
20265.00.0018
20273.80.0017
20282.60.0016
20291.30.0014

Common Grackle Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Common Grackle in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hayti16820212016
Sni Mills14619901967
Cole Camp9019901971
Blodgett7520242013
Washington6219771967
Stet5519951972
Hamilton4519851972
Cassville3920241967
Deventer3720241967
Kahoka3619981967
Norborne3520232006
New Point2820241994
Gildehouse2819891978
Cameron2620231986
Centertown2520241973
Mcfall2220241994
Kennett2220242015
Frazier2120241967
Kirksville2120241994
Lucerne2020212016
Emden1920242017
Kahoka21720242002
Mincy1620242014
Ironton1519801972
Sedalia1420241991

Common Grackle Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.