BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Common Grackle Population Trend in Missouri

All statesGeneralists

Common Grackle in Missouri has collapsed: down 85% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-85%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
93Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Grackle Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Grackle has collapsed in Missouri: down 85% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Common Grackle Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Common Grackle in Missouri is projected to fall about 96% by 2030 — from 9.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.35 (95% range 0.00–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-96%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.35Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Grackle in Missouri is projected to fall about 96% by 2030 — from 9.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.35 (95% range 0.00–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.20.0018
20274.00.0017
20282.80.0016
20291.60.0015
20300.350.0013

Common Grackle Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Common Grackle in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hayti16820212016
Sni Mills14619901967
Blodgett11320252013
Cole Camp9019901971
Washington6219771967
Stet5519951972
Hamilton4519851972
New Point3820251994
Miller3720252014
Kahoka3619981967
Norborne3520232006
Kennett3520252015
Cassville3220251967
Mincy3220252014
Cp Girardeau3120251967
Gildehouse2819891978
Frazier2120241967
Emden1920242017
Kahoka21720242002
Rensselaer1620251971
Dover1620252013
Ironton1519801972
Union1419991990
Bolckow1319921967
Handley1220251967

Common Grackle Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.