BirdAnalyst
Species · Mississippi · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Common Grackle Population Trend in Mississippi

All statesGeneralists

Common Grackle in Mississippi has collapsed: down 92% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-92%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
68Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Grackle Trends in MississippiNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Grackle has collapsed in Mississippi: down 92% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Common Grackle Population Forecast in Mississippi

If the recent trend holds, Common Grackle in Mississippi is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 4.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±285.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±285.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Grackle in Mississippi is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 4.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±285.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.000.0020
20270.000.0020
20280.000.0020
20290.000.0020
20300.000.0020

Common Grackle Survey Routes in Mississippi

Routes recording Common Grackle in Mississippi.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Commerce6519931966
Tchula4919751970
Walthall3819871970
Isola3220221968
Macon3120251966
Poplarville2619781972
Tchula 22219941976
Okatibbee L.2120081995
Cybur2020191966
Fontainbleau2019781966
Grenada Lake2020191997
Lake Mary1919891974
Winterville1820112009
Scooba1719821967
Dahomey Nwr1720252011
Duffee1620081973
Lucien1420131967
Olive Branch1320011966
Moon1120211996
Cockrum920211966
Leaf River920132013
Latimer 2820222022
Dundee720221970
Fort Adams720011975
Eagle Lake620252012

Common Grackle Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.