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Species · Kansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Grackle Population Trend in Kansas

All statesGeneralists

Common Grackle in Kansas has fallen sharply: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-64%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Grackle Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Grackle has fallen sharply in Kansas: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Common Grackle Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Common Grackle in Kansas is projected to fall about 31% by 2029 — from 19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 0.00–33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-31%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Grackle in Kansas is projected to fall about 31% by 2029 — from 19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 0.00–33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025160.0036
2026150.0035
2027150.0034
2028140.0033
2029130.0033

Common Grackle Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Common Grackle in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Thrall9719701967
Covert9720241967
Ulysses9220242000
Plymell6620242000
Gray6420191967
Missler6320191975
Beloit 26220182005
Wellington5220241968
Chapman4619811967
Hodges4420142000
Ruleton4120221981
Hopewell3920182000
Lincolnville3820242002
Damar3520162000
Hollenberg3320231969
St John2620191967
Minneapolis2320191967
Beloit2320032000
Rexford2220242000
Ashland2120211969
Leoville2120181967
Grigston2120242000
Kanopolis1920241967
Solomon1820191982
Bucyrus1620242022

Common Grackle Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.