BirdAnalyst
Species · Kentucky · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Grackle Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesGeneralists

Common Grackle in Kentucky has collapsed: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-82%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
63Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Grackle Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Grackle has collapsed in Kentucky: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Common Grackle Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Common Grackle in Kentucky is projected to fall about 91% by 2029 — from 25 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 0.00–33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-91%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±52.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Grackle in Kentucky is projected to fall about 91% by 2029 — from 25 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 0.00–33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025130.0043
2026100.0040
20277.60.0038
20285.00.0035
20292.30.0033

Common Grackle Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Common Grackle in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Shelbyville24719781966
Million15819861966
Buena Vista13720171966
Plum11920241966
Sewell Shop11820231966
Boxville10719831966
Goshen8919991966
Iron Bridge8719981966
Kehoe 27720242005
Million 27720242006
Johnsonville7420211966
Mcbrayer6920241966
Levee6319821966
Bays Fork6320191999
Eastview5620241967
Hodgenville5220031967
Pleasurevill4920241979
Dixie4620191967
East Union4420221966
Hodgenville 24020232008
Levee 23920192007
Bardwell3820031967
Beattyville3820011966
Mckee3620241967
Merrimac3520241967

Common Grackle Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.