BirdAnalyst
Species · Kentucky · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Common Grackle Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesGeneralists

Common Grackle in Kentucky has collapsed: down 81% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-81%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
63Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Grackle Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Grackle has collapsed in Kentucky: down 81% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Common Grackle Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Common Grackle in Kentucky is projected to fall about 96% by 2030 — from 37 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.00–32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-96%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±55.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Grackle in Kentucky is projected to fall about 96% by 2030 — from 37 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.00–32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026120.0042
20279.30.0040
20286.80.0037
20294.20.0035
20301.60.0032

Common Grackle Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Common Grackle in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Shelbyville24719781966
Million15819861966
Plum14920251966
Buena Vista13720171966
Boxville10719831966
Sewell Shop9020251966
Goshen8919991966
Iron Bridge8719981966
Kehoe 27720242005
Pleasurevill7720251979
Million 27720242006
Johnsonville7420211966
Mcbrayer7320251966
Levee6319821966
Bays Fork6320191999
Lovelacevile5620251967
Eastview5620251967
Hodgenville5220031967
Dixie4620191967
Morganfield4420252022
Hodgenville 24020232008
Levee 23920192007
Bardwell3820031967
Beattyville3820011966
Mckee3620251967

Common Grackle Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.