BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Common Grackle Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesGeneralists

Common Grackle in Minnesota has fallen sharply: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-54%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
92Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Grackle Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Grackle has fallen sharply in Minnesota: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Common Grackle Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Common Grackle in Minnesota is projected to rise about 15% by 2030 — from 26 in 2025 to a central estimate of 30 (95% range 8.3–51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+15%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
30Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.3–5195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±55.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Grackle in Minnesota is projected to rise about 15% by 2030 — from 26 in 2025 to a central estimate of 30 (95% range 8.3–51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026321153
2027311052
2028319.552
2029308.951
2030308.351

Common Grackle Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Common Grackle in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hartland13620171967
Maynard11620151967
Redwood Fall11420251978
Worthington10720252004
Tracy10320252004
New London10320241994
Big Stone8520121995
Franklin8020251993
Huntley7820251967
Chokio7420251969
Fairmont7420251993
Whitewater7320001994
Chokio North6920251993
Courtland6420251978
Le Roy6120251993
Chandler5620251969
Whitewater 25620192011
Ash Creek5120251975
Chatfield 24720252003
Lakeville4420251968
Oklee4320211969
Glenwood4120191993
Appleton3820251978
Arlington3720251967
Dawson3720251973

Common Grackle Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.