BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Grackle Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesGeneralists

Common Grackle in Minnesota has fallen sharply: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-56%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
92Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Grackle Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Grackle has fallen sharply in Minnesota: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Common Grackle Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Common Grackle in Minnesota is projected to rise about 30% by 2029 — from 24 in 2024 to a central estimate of 31 (95% range 9.3–52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+30%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
31Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.3–5295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±54.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Grackle in Minnesota is projected to rise about 30% by 2029 — from 24 in 2024 to a central estimate of 31 (95% range 9.3–52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025331254
2026321154
2027321053
2028319.952
2029319.352

Common Grackle Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Common Grackle in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hartland13620171967
Maynard11620151967
New London10320241994
Ash Creek9420241975
Big Stone8520121995
Redwood Fall8320241978
Appleton8120241978
Tracy7920242004
Franklin7620241993
Whitewater7320001994
Chandler7020231969
Chokio6920241969
Worthington6620242004
Le Roy6120241993
Arlington5620241967
Whitewater 25620192011
Fairmont5420231993
Courtland5320241978
Huntley5020241967
Caledonia 24520242013
Chatfield 24420242003
Oklee4320211969
Glenwood4120191993
Gluek3720191967
Glyndon3020241978

Common Grackle Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.