BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Common Grackle Population Trend in New York

All statesGeneralists

Common Grackle in New York has fallen sharply: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-64%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
129Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Grackle Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Grackle has fallen sharply in New York: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Common Grackle Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Common Grackle in New York is projected to fall about 68% by 2030 — from 22 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.8 (95% range 0.00–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-68%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±56.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Grackle in New York is projected to fall about 68% by 2030 — from 22 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.8 (95% range 0.00–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026100.0025
20279.50.0024
20288.60.0023
20297.70.0022
20306.80.0021

Common Grackle Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Common Grackle in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hauppauge12220181966
Macdougall11220251969
Romulus6420001968
Naples6020251966
Jones Beach5620131966
Ballston Lk5419951967
Manorville5320241966
Huntington5220231966
Orleans5220251967
Penfield4920251968
Cicero Ctr4820251966
Warwick4519741968
Dryden4520251966
N Victory4419721967
Hamburg4220251967
Churchville4220251968
Somers3819771970
Rifton3619861967
Harris Hill3620252005
Hopkinton3520211968
Bedford3319961967
Canadice L3320251968
North Easton3320251967
Durham3219761966
S Vandalia3220171966

Common Grackle Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.