BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Grackle Population Trend in New York

All statesGeneralists

Common Grackle in New York has fallen sharply: down 66% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-66%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
129Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Grackle Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Grackle has fallen sharply in New York: down 66% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Common Grackle Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Common Grackle in New York is projected to fall about 71% by 2029 — from 24 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.9 (95% range 0.00–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-71%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±56.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Grackle in New York is projected to fall about 71% by 2029 — from 24 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.9 (95% range 0.00–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025100.0025
20269.60.0024
20278.70.0023
20287.80.0022
20296.90.0021

Common Grackle Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Common Grackle in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Macdougall19120241969
Hauppauge12220181966
Naples7620241966
Cicero Ctr6720241966
Romulus6420001968
Hamburg5920241967
Jones Beach5620131966
Ballston Lk5419951967
Manorville5320241966
Huntington5220231966
North Easton5020241967
Warwick4519741968
N Victory4419721967
Dryden4020241966
Churchville3920241968
Somers3819771970
Ogdensburg3720241979
Rifton3619861967
Corbettsvile3520241966
Hopkinton3520211968
Bedford3319961967
Durham3219761966
Rushville3220241968
S Vandalia3220171966
Branchport3020241967

Common Grackle Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.