BirdAnalyst
Species · Alabama · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Common Grackle Population Trend in Alabama

All statesGeneralists

Common Grackle in Alabama has collapsed: down 85% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-85%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
109Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Grackle Trends in AlabamaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Grackle has collapsed in Alabama: down 85% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Common Grackle Population Forecast in Alabama

If the recent trend holds, Common Grackle in Alabama is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 8.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±77.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±77.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Grackle in Alabama is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 8.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±77.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.60.0013
20270.700.0012
20280.000.0011
20290.000.0011
20300.000.0011

Common Grackle Survey Routes in Alabama

Routes recording Common Grackle in Alabama.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Alabama Pt23220031966
Foley15919841966
Elberta11120221986
Birmingham8719951970
Dawson8519981966
Dauphin Is8119901966
Dearmanville5219831966
Summitt4219811966
Alabama Pt 23920192004
Pine Grove3420251966
Elkmont3420251990
Bon Secour3020231993
St Florian2620251967
Harrell2520251968
Wheeler Dam2320251993
Hillsboro1919961966
Brantley1920251966
Carter Grove1920232002
Georgetown1820251994
Chacaloochee Bay1720192009
Stevenson1620241996
Swaim1520251966
Greensport1520251966
Choccolocco1520251984
Brooksville1420251984

Common Grackle Population Trend in Other States

arkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.