BirdAnalyst
Species · Florida · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Common Grackle Population Trend in Florida

All statesGeneralists

Common Grackle in Florida has fallen sharply: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-56%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
124Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Grackle Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Grackle has fallen sharply in Florida: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Common Grackle Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Common Grackle in Florida is projected to fall about 22% by 2030 — from 12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 9.4 (95% range 3.0–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-22%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.0–1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Grackle in Florida is projected to fall about 22% by 2030 — from 12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 9.4 (95% range 3.0–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026114.718
2027114.317
2028103.817
20299.83.416
20309.43.016

Common Grackle Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Common Grackle in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
St Lucie11720251987
Kendall11019911987
Boca Raton10719941968
Redlands9320241994
Shawano 29020112004
Dale Mabry8319881966
Lovedale8120111987
Plantation K8020041966
Gardner7019991987
Ridge Harbor6720251991
Ft Waltn Bch6620111966
Alturas6419861971
Sugarloaf Key6120041999
Key Largo5719911987
Indiantown5520171966
Punta Gorda5220151980
Santa Rosa4720031987
Key West4619871987
Webb4620251990
Childs4120221966
Homestead4020251988
Holey Land4020251987
Vero Beach3920221993
Wildernes Pk3620141992
Myakka Head3320111966

Common Grackle Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.