BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Common Grackle Population Trend in Virginia

All statesGeneralists

Common Grackle in Virginia has collapsed: down 93% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-93%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Grackle Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Grackle has collapsed in Virginia: down 93% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Common Grackle Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Common Grackle in Virginia is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 16 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–77). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±137.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–7795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±137.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Grackle in Virginia is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 16 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–77). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±137.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.000.0077
20270.000.0077
20280.000.0077
20290.000.0077
20300.000.0077

Common Grackle Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Common Grackle in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Newbern18019821968
Backbay13419741966
Edinburg11920251968
Stanley11320251966
Churchville10320251966
Ivanhoe8119681966
Cornland7820141975
Marion7419821976
David6920131968
Cape Charles5420181992
Jerome5120251971
Appomattox5120241995
Chincoteag W4720241992
Brandy Station4220252017
Dismal Swamp4020161992
Saltville3820251969
Colonial Pky3319981992
Waverly3219871967
Great Falls3019781966
Star Tannery2820251977
Natural Brid2720251974
Rural Retrt2620251982
Irisburg2220251976
Quinby2020251966
Pungo1920251975

Common Grackle Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.