BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Common Grackle Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesGeneralists

Common Grackle in North Carolina has collapsed: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-76%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
105Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Grackle Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Grackle has collapsed in North Carolina: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Common Grackle Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Common Grackle in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 12 (95% range 0.00–37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+8%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Grackle in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 12 (95% range 0.00–37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026170.0041
2027150.0040
2028140.0039
2029130.0038
2030120.0037

Common Grackle Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Common Grackle in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Beargrass32719811966
Jarvisburg20619991992
Grandy14819751971
Shallotte13219911966
Mashoes10119821971
Fairmont7819811968
Cherryville7719681966
Hertford7120241997
Cypress Lakes6420252004
California6120131972
Mattamuskeet5820211998
Speed5120251966
Madison4919851966
Arapahoe4619951966
Sturgills4020252001
Belgrade4020192002
Rhems3919931990
Craven Gap3719751969
Rowland3220241990
Milltail Cr3220251992
Hulls Xroads3120231997
Bethel3020252002
Rheasville2820172005
Mooresville2720011966
Mooresville 22420252006

Common Grackle Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.