BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Grackle Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesGeneralists

Common Grackle in North Carolina has fallen sharply: down 69% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-69%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
105Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Grackle Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Grackle has fallen sharply in North Carolina: down 69% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Common Grackle Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Common Grackle in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 14 (95% range 0.00–39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-1%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Grackle in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 14 (95% range 0.00–39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025180.0043
2026170.0042
2027160.0041
2028150.0040
2029140.0039

Common Grackle Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Common Grackle in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Jarvisburg 260920222000
Beargrass32719811966
Jarvisburg20619991992
Grandy14819751971
Shallotte13219911966
Mashoes10119821971
Fairmont7819811968
Cherryville7719681966
Hertford7120241997
California6120131972
Mattamuskeet5820211998
Wilgrove5520231995
Speed5420241966
Madison4919851966
Ostwalt4920242012
Arapahoe4619951966
Siloam4620242005
Belgrade4020192002
Rhems3919931990
Craven Gap3719751969
Myrtle Grove3520241966
Milltail Cr3520241992
Sheffield3320241991
Arcola3220241971
Rowland3220241990

Common Grackle Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.