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Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Inca Dove Population Trend in Texas

All statesGeneralists

Inca Dove in Texas has risen sharply: up 52% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+52%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
173Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Inca Dove Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Inca Dove has risen sharply in Texas: up 52% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Inca Dove Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Inca Dove in Texas is projected to rise about 73% by 2030 — from 0.68 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.20–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±231.9%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+73%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.20–2.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±231.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Inca Dove in Texas is projected to rise about 73% by 2030 — from 0.68 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.20–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±231.9%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.20.182.1
20271.20.192.2
20281.20.192.2
20291.20.202.2
20301.20.202.2

Inca Dove Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Inca Dove in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bayside 21420011997
Fannin1220251998
Gause1119971988
Schroeder1019971969
Encinal820101969
Oak Grove 2820252004
Agua Nueva720231970
Hobson720251970
Oak Grove719991992
Raymondville720251969
Leander720061987
Mcfaddin720162006
Livingston620251990
Fitzhugh619801969
Sejita520241994
San Ygnacio419821971
Rock Island420251984
Valley Spgs420251967
Pidcoke420091971
Selden420101988
El Sauz420151998
Progreso420091994
Loyola Beach420091994
Burton420251996
Creedmore420131994

Inca Dove Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.