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Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Inca Dove Population Trend in Texas

All statesGeneralists

Inca Dove in Texas has edged up: up 18% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+18%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
169Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Inca Dove Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Inca Dove in Texas. See the full index history below.

Inca Dove Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Inca Dove in Texas is projected to rise about 126% by 2029 — from 0.54 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.24–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±250.2%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+126%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.24–2.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±250.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Inca Dove in Texas is projected to rise about 126% by 2029 — from 0.54 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.24–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±250.2%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.20.212.2
20261.20.222.2
20271.20.232.2
20281.20.232.2
20291.20.242.2

Inca Dove Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Inca Dove in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bayside 21420011997
Three Rivers1220241994
Gause1119971988
Schroeder1019971969
Encinal820101969
Agua Nueva720231970
Hondo720241972
Oak Grove719991992
Leander720061987
Mcfaddin720162006
Arenosa Crk620241972
Fitzhugh619801969
Sejita520241994
San Ygnacio419821971
Pidcoke420091971
Selden420101988
El Sauz420151998
Progreso420091994
Loyola Beach420091994
Burton420241996
Creedmore420131994
Decatur420242014
Rachal320231967
Randado320231967
Hinkles Fer320151982

Inca Dove Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascalifornialouisianamississippinew-mexicooklahoma

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.