BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Inca Dove Population Trend in Arizona

All statesGeneralists

Inca Dove in Arizona has collapsed: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-78%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Inca Dove Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Inca Dove has collapsed in Arizona: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Inca Dove Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Inca Dove in Arizona is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.69). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±341.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±341.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Inca Dove in Arizona is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.69). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±341.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.140.000.72
20260.140.000.71
20270.130.000.71
20280.120.000.70
20290.120.000.69

Inca Dove Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Inca Dove in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sahuarita820061993
Florence619761968
Dateland420161996
Portal320242024
New River320081990
Araby320221997
Coolidge219791978
Palo Verde220061992
Mcneal220072000
Casa Grande220181993
Carr Mtn220101989
Oatman120041992
Laguna120232000
Ajo119791979
Pomerene120151969
Patagonia120241970
Red Rock 2120232015
Gila Bend120012001
Cutter120141998
Red Rock120011997
Redington120221993
Amado120231995
Hope 2120182018
Sunizona 2120092001
Cactus Forest120241997

Inca Dove Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascalifornialouisianamississippinew-mexicooklahomatexas

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.