Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Inca Dove Population Trend in Arizona
Inca Dove in Arizona has collapsed: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1970.
-78%Since 1970
25Routes In State
50Years
Notable Inca Dove Trends in Arizona
long arc declinecomputed index
Inca Dove has collapsed in Arizona: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1970.
Inca Dove Population Forecast in Arizona
If the recent trend holds, Inca Dove in Arizona is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.69). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±341.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
-18%Change by 2029
0.12Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.6995% range
±341.2%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.72 |
| 2026 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.71 |
| 2027 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.71 |
| 2028 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.70 |
| 2029 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.69 |
Inca Dove Survey Routes in Arizona
| Sahuarita | 8 | 2006 | 1993 |
| Florence | 6 | 1976 | 1968 |
| Dateland | 4 | 2016 | 1996 |
| Portal | 3 | 2024 | 2024 |
| New River | 3 | 2008 | 1990 |
| Araby | 3 | 2022 | 1997 |
| Coolidge | 2 | 1979 | 1978 |
| Palo Verde | 2 | 2006 | 1992 |
| Mcneal | 2 | 2007 | 2000 |
| Casa Grande | 2 | 2018 | 1993 |
| Carr Mtn | 2 | 2010 | 1989 |
| Oatman | 1 | 2004 | 1992 |
| Laguna | 1 | 2023 | 2000 |
| Ajo | 1 | 1979 | 1979 |
| Pomerene | 1 | 2015 | 1969 |
| Patagonia | 1 | 2024 | 1970 |
| Red Rock 2 | 1 | 2023 | 2015 |
| Gila Bend | 1 | 2001 | 2001 |
| Cutter | 1 | 2014 | 1998 |
| Red Rock | 1 | 2001 | 1997 |
| Redington | 1 | 2022 | 1993 |
| Amado | 1 | 2023 | 1995 |
| Hope 2 | 1 | 2018 | 2018 |
| Sunizona 2 | 1 | 2009 | 2001 |
| Cactus Forest | 1 | 2024 | 1997 |
Inca Dove Population Trend in Other States
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.