BirdAnalyst
Species · Louisiana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Inca Dove Population Trend in Louisiana

All statesGeneralists

Inca Dove in Louisiana has surged: up 621% on the route-weighted index since 1996.

+621%Since 1996TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
31YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Inca Dove Trends in LouisianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Inca Dove has surged in Louisiana: up 621% on the route-weighted index since 1996.

Inca Dove Population Forecast in Louisiana

If the recent trend holds, Inca Dove in Louisiana is projected to rise about 419% by 2030 — from 0.15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.80 (95% range 0.43–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±113.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+419%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.80Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.43–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±113.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Inca Dove in Louisiana is projected to rise about 419% by 2030 — from 0.15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.80 (95% range 0.43–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±113.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19942030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.730.361.1
20270.750.381.1
20280.760.401.1
20290.780.421.1
20300.800.431.2

Inca Dove Survey Routes in Louisiana

Routes recording Inca Dove in Louisiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ltl Chenier620242013
Maurice520242002
Kaplan520231999
Kraemer420242005
Haughton320122006
Woodlawn320192014
Hackberry 2320182018
River Road220222005
Bickham220242012
Fort Jessup220132001
Hackberry220161994
Mayflower220252022
Vinton 2220242014
Glencoe220172012
Concord220152015
Evelyn220242007
Brousville220242012
Richard220242008
Frogmore220132013
Forked Island220182018
Natchez220241999
Ville Platte220192001
Rayville 2220252025
Enterprise120242006
Roseland120242021

Inca Dove Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniafloridamississippinew-mexicooklahomatexas

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.