BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Inca Dove

ColumbidaeGeneralistsColumbina inca

Inca Dove has surged: up 83% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+83%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
263RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Inca Dove

The Inca Dove (Columbina inca) is a North American member of the Pigeons & Doves (Columbidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the generalists.

Size
6–14.5 in long (15–37 cm) — a plump-bodied bird (typical for the family)
Habitat
A broad range of open and wooded habitats, often near people.
Diet
An opportunistic mix of insects, seeds, fruit and scraps.
Range
Recorded on 263 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 9 states, most concentrated in the Oaks and Prairies.
Family
Columbidae · Generalists

Notable Inca Dove TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Inca Dove. See the full index history below.

Inca Dove Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Inca Dove is projected to rise about 56% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.03–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±150.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+56%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.09Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.03–0.1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±150.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Inca Dove is projected to rise about 56% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.03–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±150.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.080.030.14
20260.080.030.14
20270.090.030.14
20280.090.030.14
20290.090.030.14

Where the Inca Dove Is Detected

BBS routes recording Inca Dove, sized by most recent count.

Inca Dove Population Trend by State

Inca Dove population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alabamainsufficient datan/a5
Arizona-78%197025
Arkansasinsufficient datan/a2
Californiainsufficient datan/a2
Louisiana+847%199651
Mississippiinsufficient datan/a1
New Mexico-24%19985
Oklahomainsufficient datan/a3
Texas+18%1969169

Inca Dove Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Inca Dove population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Shortgrass Prairie+34%20056
Central Mixed Grass Prairie-63%197211
Edwards Plateau-73%197019
Oaks and Prairies+269%197054
West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas+162%198844
Mississippi Alluvial Valley+143%200515
Sonoran and Mojave Deserts-90%197117
Sierra Madre Occidental-81%197211
Chihuahuan Desert-36%199212
Tamaulipan Brushlands-9%196927
Gulf Coastal Prairie+181%197237

Inca Dove Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 83% since 1969.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.