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Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Inca Dove In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasGeneralists

Inca Dove in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has surged: up 162% on the route-weighted index since 1988.

+162%Since 1988TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
44Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
36YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Inca Dove has surged in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: up 162% on the route-weighted index since 1988.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Inca Dove in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.35 (95% range 0.16–0.55). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.35Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.16–0.5595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±66.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Inca Dove in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.35 (95% range 0.16–0.55). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19822029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.330.140.53
20260.340.140.54
20270.340.150.54
20280.350.150.54
20290.350.160.55

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Inca Dove in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ivan 2LOUISIANA52016
HaughtonLOUISIANA32012
Smyrna 2TEXAS32023
HopeARKANSAS22008
LockesburgARKANSAS22016
Fort JessupLOUISIANA22013
NatchezLOUISIANA22024
EvelynLOUISIANA22024
Town BluffTEXAS22019
LivingstonTEXAS22024
New WaverlyTEXAS22010
CaledoniaTEXAS22018
Liberty HillTEXAS22013
FredTEXAS22022
Bon WierTEXAS22024
Neches BithTEXAS22016
De RidderLOUISIANA12014
ClayLOUISIANA12024
LongstreetLOUISIANA12024
TroutLOUISIANA12016
De QuincyLOUISIANA12015
Flat CreekLOUISIANA12024
ZwolleLOUISIANA12022
Derry 2LOUISIANA12024
Fishville 2LOUISIANA12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.